Doc’s March Madness 2006 Preview: Oakland Region
There certainly won’t be much defense in the Oakland region. That seems appropriate for the laid-back left coast, and Memphis, UCLA and Gonzaga are capable of shining offensively.
I don’t go so far as to call these teams “soft,” but let’s just say that with so many defensively-challenged clubs in a group, that could open the door for a tough team like Pittsburgh or Arkansas to do some damage.
Here’s my humble view of the Oakland region for Doc’s March Madness 2006 preview:
No. 1 seed: Memphis (30-3 overall, 15-15 against the spread)
I’m amazed at how quickly people are writing off Memphis in this group. They have the most athletic team in the field and a pair of studs in Rodney Carney and Darius Washington. They get overlooked because they didn’t play in a major conference, but they dominated the lower competition because of the zeal with which they defend and rebound. Additionally, they began the year by beating UW-M, Alabama, and UCLA, all tournament teams. They lost by three to Duke and by 11 to Texas, but have beaten Gonzaga and are 8-3 against other schools on the field.
No. 2 seed: UCLA (27-6 overall, 19-10 ATS)
The Bruins will be a very sheikh Final Four pick. And with good reason. They have terrific guard play, loads of athleticism and youth, and have proven to be the best on the left (coast, that is). They are 9-3 away from Pauley Pavilion and enter the tournament riding a seven-game winning streak. They’ve won those seven by an average of 17 points, including a 19-point mayhem from Cal in the Pac-10 championship, and are on a 9-1 ATS rise. However, since 1999 only one Pac-10 team (Arizona, 2001) has reached the Final Four.
No. 3 seed: Gonzaga (27-3 overall, 12-18 ATS)
This support is custom made for the Zags. Xavier is a pushover. Indiana and SDSU can’t hang up. If they go that far, Gonzaga would face UCLA or Marquette and we’d see around 400 points in any given game. I know they’ve been a perennial tournament disappointment ever since they burst onto the scene in the late 1990s as a group buster. But if they’re ever going to make a serious move and take their show to the next level, this might be their best chance.
No. 4 seed: Kansas (27-6 overall, 18-11 ATS)
The Jayhawks are the hottest team to enter the NCAA Tournament, winning 15 of their previous 16 games. They have 10 freshmen or sophomores on their roster, which makes me extremely nervous. But what they lack in experience they make up for in the hustle, determination and grit you’d expect from a veteran club. They are the best team in the country in field goal defense, holding opponents to a paltry 36.8 percent shooting. They are also one of the top ten rebounding teams in the nation.
No. 5 seed: Pittsburgh (24-7 overall, 15-10-1 ATS)
In a two-on-two game, I can take center Aaron Gray and point guard Carl Krauser over just about anyone in the nation. In fact, the Panthers can be overly reliant on their main engine. They’re 0-6 in games in which Krauser hasn’t led the team in scoring, and if Kent State can find a way to neutralize him, Pitt could face his second straight. Pitt ranks 28th in the nation in field goal defense and 11th in defensive rebounding.
Best first-round matchup: No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 Alabama
I like the Golden Eagles here, but there’s something holding me back: Marquette has been weak on the road this season. Alabama has been bold all year and was moderately surprised at how its seed slipped. The Crimson Tide have been pretty hot or cold in previous tournaments, but they never lack for effort. The matchup to watch here is Marquette’s standout freshman point guard Dominic James against Alabama’s sensational sophomore point guard Ronald Steele.
Best potential second-round matchup: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 5 Pittsburgh
From what I’ve heard, many bigheads have the winner of this game leaving the region. Both have been outstanding over the last month and both are big names in Power Conferences. Expect a low-scoring grinder, which is exactly the kind of game where a senior stud like Krauser can make the difference.
Upset Alert (First Round): No. 12 Kent State vs. No. 5 Pittsburgh
The dreaded meeting of 5-12. Pittsburgh just hasn’t been a very good NCAA Tournament team in recent seasons. I think Krauser can take this team to the Sweet 16, but I also expect them to be a little worn after playing four games in four nights in New York. The Golden Flashes are tournament staples and have beaten one of the greats before. This is more of a “Why not?” selection.
Upset Alert (2nd round): No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 2 from UCLA.
Last year, West Virginia defeated Wake Forest in the second round. I think another Big East school will play the killjoy this year. Remember, the Golden Eagles are one of three teams to beat UConn this season and are the ninth best three-point shooting team in the country. UCLA has a tremendous advantage playing in their backyard, but West Virginia managed to get to Cali and get past the Bruins earlier this season, so they’re not immune to defeat.
Dark Horse Team: No. 9 Bucknell
I know this is a long reach here, but the bison are afraid of no one. Period. In the last year they managed Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Kansas. They brought 12 of their top 13 scorers from last season’s team of the tournament, and are among the top 40 in the nation in field goal percentage and three-point shooting. But what I like best about them is that they are second in the country in points allowed (55.3) and fifth in field goal defense (38.1 percent). They just chase you defensively. Their first round matchup against Arkansas is one of the best matchups we’ll see on Thursday or Friday. If they can keep the Razorbacks at bay, it’ll be a great start to a meeting with Memphis.
Team that makes me nervous: No. 3 Gonzaga
I noticed something about the Zags while watching them play in the WCC Tournament: Adam Morrison’s teammates don’t seem to enjoy playing him. I’m serious. I’m a huge Morrison fan, but he’s like a prima donna wide receiver who’s always wide open and always wants the ball. I think he takes on his teammates. Did you see them when their seed was announced on Selection Sunday? Without emotion. They still don’t defend very well and they think they can outplay their opponents. That doesn’t win titles.