Strategic Foresight – Understanding the Negative Future – Nu Leadership Series

“It is not how long you live that counts, but what you do in your life that is important. You have to learn to deal with the storms of life.”

Rev. Richard Brown, Jr.

Do we really want to browse in the future? Some people don’t want to consider it. Clearly the future is a highway with different lanes, but do humans have the ability to accept unhappy endings? In general, my position is that humans are incapable of accepting unhappy endings. In fact, futurist Edward Cornish argues that it is easier for people to keep a long-term perspective when they have a clear vision. Futurists use many techniques to anticipate the future. For example, strategic forecasting can provide an avenue in which organizations can strategically analyze short, medium, and long-term planning. Therefore, it is a look to the future. This concept is easily seen on the big screen. Hollywood blockbusters are the timeline of happy endings. People want to believe that all stories have a positive ending. This concept stems from childhood innocence as Americans. Unfortunately, the future may include unpleasant results.

However, life does not always offer a good story. For example, globalization can provide many job opportunities, but the result is not always positive. In fact, the future prediction for the full-time worker is grim. It is clear that technology and outsourcing are making the part-time worker a reality of today, not tomorrow. In fact, Charles Handy theorized that unemployed or replacement workers will create their own new job in the future. Thus, individuals will control their own destiny and become entrepreneurs. However, this goes against our American culture. Grandma taught us “to go to work for a good company and get a good job with benefits.”

In fact, Bruce Sterling, author of Tomorrow now, further argues that simple, predictable and solution jobs will go into the hands of poorly educated and unprepared people or smart machines. However, the high paying jobs will go to the highly prepared, educated and creative people. In the future, good jobs will be the pinnacle of human difficulties. Technology and understanding complex systems will require a well-founded person. However, futurist James Canton argues that young Americans, our future workers, will not be prepared in math / science and may be excluded from future opportunities.

According to many observations, organizations and individuals do not want to hear negative scenarios for future generations. This reality reaffirms that people do not want to think negatively about their future. Therefore, they often operate in denial or ignore the future. Clearly, organizational leaders need to develop a strategy to deal with negative consequences. Many people don’t have the patience to look beyond short-term gains. Therefore, effective leaders must know how to deal with the possibilities of negative futures.

References:

Cantón, J. (2006). The extreme future. New York: Dutton.

Cornish, E. (2002). Futuring: exploring the future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.

Handy, C. (1997). The age of paradox. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Sterling, B. (2002). Tomorrow now. New York: Random House Publishers.

© 2008 by Daryl D. Green